Abstract
This study summarizes the latest demand forecasts for artemisinin-combination therapies (ACTs) and artemisinin in 2012 and 2013 produced by the ACT forecasting consortium. The consortium consists of The Boston Consulting Group, the Clinton Health Access Initiative, and Fundacion Zaragoza Logistics Center. Funded and coordinated by UNTAID, the project brings together forecasters originally working under the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) umbrella in an effort to produce a single ACT forecast for use by the malaria community. The consortium is overseen by a Steering Committee that includes representatives from the Affordable Medicines Facility – malaria (AMFM), the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), the Roll Back Malaria partnership, UNITAID and the World Health Organization. This is the fourth in a periodic series of consortium forecasts that will be produced until mid-2013.
The consortium demand forecast uses multiple data sources and multiple models to generate a single, global, forecast of the quantity of pre-qualified ACTs and artemisinin that will be procured in 2012 and 2013. It projects ACT procurement across three market sectors – the public channel (including all sources of funding for public channel purchases), the premium (i.e., unsubsidized) private channel, and the subsidized private channel (in AMFm Phase 1 countries1). The forecasts reported here project procurement at the manufacturer level, in the form of expected orders based on currently available and committed funding.
