Abstract
PATH collaborated with Futures Institute from August 2009 to April 2010 to develop strategic models describing the demand for the injectable contraceptive depo-subQ provera 104™ in the Uniject™ injection system (deposubQ in Uniject) in five focus countries: Kenya, Malawi, Pakistan, Rwanda, and Senegal. PATH and Futures Institute developed these models to inform global and country introduction planning for the new contraceptive product, expected to become available on the market soon. The models contribute to evidence that informs global product price and procurement dialogue, and can provide information for global and country decision-makers to help them determine how to include depo-subQ in Uniject in their family planning programs.
Futures Institute developed the demand models using Demographic and Health Survey data and population data from each country. The models incorporate information on the impact of specific family planning programs and policies on depo-subQ in Uniject uptake. PATH provided guidance to Futures Institute on the program and policy factors expected to influence the size and growth of each country’s market for depo-subQ in Uniject.
This briefing document describes the demand modeling objectives, assumptions, key outputs, and what PATH has learned from the modeling exercise to date. The models are not intended to produce definitive demand estimates for depo-subQ in Uniject; instead they provide a framework for projecting the new product’s impact on the family planning markets in the five focus countries based on a given set of assumptions. Any of the variables and assumptions in the model may be altered to generate new scenarios.
