Policy Brief: Global Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Demand Forecast 2017-2020

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This synopsis provides policymakers with a brief summary of the latest forecasts for global need, demand, and procurement of malaria diagnostics and treatments, and the implications of these projections for health and development policy. The forecasts were produced by a consortium including the Clinton Health Access Initiative, Inc. (CHAI), IMS Health (IMS), and the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). This consortium is funded by Unitaid and operates under the guidance of a Steering Committee consisting of representatives from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund), Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), Unitaid, the US President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), and the World Health Organization (WHO).

The forecast includes projections for need, demand, and procurement, defined as follows:

  • Procurement – represents the volume of commodities that will be purchased in a given year
  • Demand – represents the volume of commodities or services that would be required to meet all consumer demand for treatment or diagnosis of presumed malaria infections.
  • Need – represents the number of commodities that would be required to treat all febrile illnesses associated with detectable parasitemia (including cases where the malaria parasite itself is not the source of the fever).

This forecast is the third in a series produced by the consortium, and includes several changes from the previous report. This report include updates to all baseline forecast outputs that have been presented in previous reports, with key changes to the demand forecasts for injectable and rectal artesunate products, and malaria rapid diagnostic test demand and procurement. Furthermore, this report extends the forecast time period from 2016 – 2019 to 2017 – 2020.