Demand Forecasting For Essential Medical Technologies

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This article examines the ways in which better forecasting could contribute to improved short- and long-term access; outlines market-related risks and the ways in which the asymmetrical burden of risk across funders, regulatory and purchasing intermediaries and suppliers results in misaligned incentives with respect to producing optimal demand forecasts and broad access; and advances a set of specific recommendations for actions by donors and technical agencies that would help to reduce overall risk and correct those misalignments. The article summarizes the findings of the Center for Global Development’s Global Health Forecasting Working Group.